September 26, 2017

North Korea seeks help from Republican analysts: ‘What’s up with Trump?’

North Korean government officials have been quietly trying to arrange talks with Republican-linked analysts in Washington, in an apparent attempt to make sense of President Trump and his confusing messages to Kim Jong Un’s regime.The outreach began before the current eruption of threatsbetween the two leaders, but will likely become only more urgent as Trump and Kim have descended into name-calling that, many analysts worry, sharply increases the chances of potentially catastrophic misunderstandings. “Their No. 1 concern is Trump. They can’t figure him out,” said one person with direct knowledge of North Korea’s approach to Asia experts with Republicanconnections. Today’s most popular stories on The Washington PostThere is no suggestion that the North Koreans are interested in negotiations about their nuclear program — they instead seem to want forums for insistingon being recognized as a nuclear state — and the Trump administration has made clear it is not interested in talking right now.At a multilateral meeting here in Switzerland earlier this month, North Korea’s representatives were adamant about being recognized as a nuclear weapons state and showed no willingness to even talk about denuclearization. But to get a better understanding of American intentions, in the absence of official diplomatic talks with the U.S. government, North Korea’s mission to theUnited Nations invited Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst who is now the Heritage Foundation’s top expert on North Korea, to visit Pyongyang for meetings. Trump has close ties to Heritage, a conservative think-tank that has influenced the president on everything from travel restrictions to defense spending, although not to Klingner personally.“They’re on a new binge of reaching out to American scholars and ex-officials,” said Klingner, who declined the North Korean invitation. “While such meetings are useful, if the regime wants to send a clear message, it should reach out directly to the U.S. government.”North Korean intermediaries have also approached Douglas Paal, who served asan Asia expert on the national security councils of Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and is now vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.They wanted Paal to arrange talks between North Korean officials and American experts with Republican ties in a neutral place like Switzerland.He also declined the North Korean request. “The North Koreans are clearly eager to deliver a message. But I think they’re onlyinterested in getting some travel, in getting out of the country for a bit,” Paal said. North Korea currently has about seven such invitations out to organizations that have hosted previous talks — a surprising number of requests for a country that is threatening to launch a nuclear strike on the United States.Over the past two years in particular, Pyongyang has sent officials from its foreign ministry to hold meetings with Americans — usually former diplomats and think-tankers — in neutral places such as Geneva, Singapore or Kuala Lumpur. They are referred to as “Track 1.5” talksbecause they are official (Track 1) on the North Korean side but unofficial (Track 2)on the American side, although the U.S. government is kept informed of the talks.But since Trump’s election in November, the North Korean representatives have been predominantly interested in figuring out the unconventional president’s strategy, according to almost a dozen people involved in the discussions. All asked for anonymity to talk about the sensitive meetings.Early in Trump’s term, the North Koreans had been asking broad questions: Is President Trump serious about closing American military bases in South Korea and Japan, as he said on the campaign trail? Might he really send American nuclear weapons back to the southern half of the Korean Peninsula?